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1993-03-28
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*** ANNOUNCEMENT: The free trial period was recently extended through April 30.
Ken Deen's
THE AGGRESSIVE TRADER(tm)
"Seeking double-digit profits in one to four months"
ALERT
Vol. 2, No. 50 P.O. Box 4791
March 24, 1993 Santa Barbara, CA 93140
10:00am New York Time CompuServe: 72020,2050
(805) 565-2039 Internet: 72020.2050@compuserve.com
Market Stance: Neutral
*** ALERT ITEMS: ***
Marginable Account (editor's personal account):
* BUY 150 HS Resources (NASDAQ: HSRS)
EPS:94, RS:82, GR:79->56, PE:27, Oil&Gas-US Exploration and Production
Today I bought 150 shares at 20 3/4. This $3,141 purchase represents
8.0% of the account value.
After this trade, the account value is $39,318. Of that, $18,098 is
long stocks and $21,221 is cash.
IRA Account (editor's personal account):
* BUY 150 HS Resources (NASDAQ: HSRS)
EPS:94, RS:82, GR:79->56, PE:39, Oil&Gas-US Exploration and Production
Today I bought 150 shares at 20 3/4. This $3,141 purchase represents
7.3% of the account value.
After this trade, the account value is $42,856. Of that, $22,241 is
long stocks and $20,615 is cash.
DESI(tm) Account (a computer-simulated hypothetical account): No trades
DESI(tm) Buy/Sell Signals (computer-generated): None
*** TRADING IDEA ITEMS (There will be no followup on these ideas): ***
DESI(tm) Buy Candidates (The following stock(s) are "day 2" DESI(tm) buy
candidates. See Monthly Status Report ("What Is the DESI(tm) System?") for
explanation. The DESI(tm) market barometer for day 2 is red.):
* Johnson Products Co. (AMEX: JPC, $43.25)
EPS:99, RS:95, GR:93->115, PE:12, Cosmetics and Toiletries
Comment: I don't like this earnings surprise as well as HS Resources
for several reasons. First, the cosmetics and toiletries group is
declining in strength while the energy sector, and oil and gas
exploration in particular, is on the rise. Second, HSRS shows
stronger sales and earnings acceleration than JPC. Third, HSRS' PE
fell by a much larger percentage than JPC.
Publication Delay
Although I started writing this Alert at 10:00am New York time, I was not
able to send it out until 4:00pm New York time. A two to three hour delay
is typical; today's longer delay was due to difficulties in obtaining
quarterly sales and earnings numbers.
HS Resources
Although my market stance is still neutral, I am bullish on the energy
sector. The "Oil&Gas - US Exploration and Production" group has climbed from
115th place on Jan. 20 to 56th place (out of 199) today, based on price
performance over the past six months.
HS Resources is a new issue, having gone public last November at $14 a
share. Here are the sales and earnings numbers over the last four quarters:
Quarter
Ended Sales($mil) Earnings-per-share
--------- ---------------- -------------------
Mar 31 92 4.4 vs 3.0 +46% 0.07 vs -0.02 +0.09
Jun 30 92 6.8 vs 2.9 +138% 0.10 vs 0.02 +0.08
Sep 30 92 7.4 vs 3.0 +148% 0.29 vs 0.00 +0.29
Dec 31 92 8.9 vs 4.2 +111% 0.31 vs 0.06 +0.25
As can be seen from these numbers, sales and earnings growth has been rapid
and generally acclerating in recent quarters.
The relative strength rank, at 82, deserves comment. As an absolute
number, this is not very meaningful because the stock is a new issue, and this
ranking compares stocks on the basis of 12-month price performance. However,
the RS rank is on the rise -- a bullish sign.
The P/E, at 27, is very modest compared to the recent growth rate. In the
wake of the recent earnings news, on March 18, the P/E dropped from 38 to 27,
even as the stock price was bid up 1 1/4 points to 21 on more than twice
normal volume.
One negative is that the stock is very overbought. It has climbed non-stop
from $14 a share to current levels over the past six weeks. There may possibly
be a dip in price sometime over the next two or three weeks to below current
levels. Should such a price dip occur, I may use it to accumulate more
shares. (If I do, I will publish another Alert.)
HS Resources, located in San Francisco, is an independent oil and gas
company operating in the Wattenberg field area of the Denver-Julesberg basin.
All rankings in today's alert (earnings-per-share, relative strength, and
group relative strength) are from Investor's Business Daily.
<Stock chart appears here in printed version.>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous Alert: Vol.2 #41 (March 5, 1993)
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SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
This issue of The Aggressive Trader(tm) may be copied and distributed
freely. Please pass it around! Beginning May 1, 1993, The Aggressive
Trader(tm) will be available only by full-price subscription. Until that
date, trial e-mail, fax, and first-class mail subscriptions are available for
only the cost of printing and mailing (e-mail via Internet is free).
Monthly Status Reports (available in printed form only) are an essential
adjunct to these timely bulletins. Among other things, they review the stock
holdings and historical performance of each newsletter account. To receive a
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These timely notices come in two flavors: "Alerts" (more important) and
"Trading Ideas" (less important). You may elect to receive Alerts only, or
both Alerts and Trading Ideas.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Aggressive Trader is edited and published at irregular intervals, but
at least monthly, by Deen Capital Management, Inc., P.O. Box 4791, Santa
Barbara, California 93140, (805) 565-2039.
Deen Capital Management, Inc., its principals, employees, affiliates,
and/or clients may have positions in securities recommended herein and may
make additional purchases and/or sales in these securities.
Recommendations made in this publication involve a high degree of risk and
may result in losses. Readers should not assume that recommendations will be
profitable or will equal past performance. The information in this
publication is collected from sources believed to be reliable, but neither the
accuracy nor the completeness of this information is guaranteed.
The Aggressive Trader, Deen Earnings Surprise Index, DESI, and DESI-3 are
all trademarks of Deen Capital Management, Inc.
Copyright (c) 1993 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
-END-